North Africa Oil & Gas Market Analysis

The main objective of this consultancy service is to develop knowledge products for the expansion of African Domestic Market for Crude Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in Africa. It aims to help policy and decision makers from the AU Member States, sub-regional and regional institutions, and investors, to put in place integrated and conducive strategies, policies and action plans to enhance investments in oil and gas. This include refining, transportation, distribution and utilisation infrastructure, so as to improve domestic processing, and facilitate cross-border trading and consumption of crude oil and natural gas, and oil and gas products produced on the continent.

The specific objectives of this assignment are:

1. Provide a comprehensive strategic analysis of African oil and gas sector through the assessment of internal and external factors that hinder development oil and natural gas domestic and regional markets.
2. Provide a comprehensive analysis of prerequisites for expansion of national, sub – regional, and regional oil and natural gas market in North Africa including policies, strategies, and plans to enhance investment in oil refining and gas processing capacities, and infrastructure for cross border trading amongst African countries;
3. Provide a roadmap and at least two alternative action plans (based on scenarios) to expand the market for crude oil and natural gas and their products in North Africa – considering domestic (country), sub-regional and regional perspectives.

Services provided:

The consultant shall work closely with AFREC and ANRC to conduct a comprehensive analysis of main oil and natural gas established and emerging producers in Africa (at least for the 14 oil producers and 7 main natural gas producers in addition to the forecast of the new discoveries in Senegal, Mauritania, Mozambique, and Tanzania). These countries are expected to be main players in the expansion of Domestic African market for crude oil, oil products and natural gas at national, sub-regional and regional market. In that respect, EPCM provided the following services:

1. Development of a situational analysis on crude oil, natural and their refined products, importation, exportation, and consumption in Africa including the cross-border trading within Africa using AFREC data and other relevant international organisations data.
2. Identification and analysis of issues affecting expansion of domestic (national, sub-regional and regional) oil and gas market, in the political (including geopolitical), legal/regulatory, economic/financial, technological, and environmental perspectives – highlighting how they are constraining development and sustainability (of existing) of supply chains and contributed to hindering production capacity and investments in the crude oil, natural gas and refined oil products supply chain and limiting cross-border trade
3. Identification and analysis of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats with respect to individual countries, sub-regional and regional blocks, and their preparedness or lack of, to address issues that constitute challenges (or threats) to market expansion.
4. Assessment of current and future forecast of production, export, import and consumption of oil and gas and their products, and evaluate opportunities and challenges of increasing share of natural gas in the energy mix in Africa and explore options for expansion of national, sub – regional and regional oil and gas market including policies, regulatory framework, market Structure and practical investment approaches.
5. In light of point 1, 2 and 3, identified the prerequisites for expansion of African domestic oil and gas market including but not limited to promoting investment in refinery facilities, associated cross boarders trading infrastructure; and enabling conducive trade policies that will create more favourable conditions for development of individual country, sub-regional and regional market and cross-border trading of crude oil, oil products and natural gas (including LNG) within Africa –  the prerequisites should be preceded by an assessing the current and future forecast of production, export, import and consumption and opportunities of increasing share of natural gas in  the energy mix
6. Recommended at least two scenarios for expansion of African market for crude oil and natural gas and their products.
7. Developed and recommended a comprehensive action plan for expansion of national, sub – regional oil and gas market in Africa and improvement of relevant infrastructure that address the supply chain gap and maximize the local value addition of the whole oil and gas  value chain, boosting the African countries refining capacity and attain security of supply of fossil fuels in the continent.

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